So far, the diplomatic barometer indicates that Kenya has a narrow lead ahead of Djibouti in its bid to represent Eastern Africa as non-permanent member of the UNSC over the 2021-2022 period.

In the Kenya –Djibouti contest, three outcomes are imminent. One, Kenya will sail through after various rounds of voting. Two, Kenya and Djibouti could share the seat following a split outcome where each gets one year of the two-year period. Three, Kenya loses to Djibouti. 

This is an unlikely but not surprising outcome.

Kenya’s strength is based on the fact that it has been formally endorsed by African Union. In fact, on 9th June 2020, few days to the 17th June vote, the AU reiterated its endorsement of Kenya as its nominee for a non-permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council for the term 2021-2022. 

The continental argument is that for the protection of AU influence and legitimacy in future international affairs, the intransigence of Djibouti which insists on bypassing the position of African body should be corrected by voting for Kenya. 

Only by doing so is the African Union able to sustain its tradition of approaching top UN positions and matters with one voice.

Another selling point for Kenya is its visibility globally compared to Djibouti. 

This considers Kenya’s recent hosting and leadership of the 79 membership organization of African, Caribbean and Pacific States (OACPS), its strategic position as a gateway to EAC promising economy, prominence through cultural diplomacy such as athletics and a history of contributing to global peace and security through UN and AU peace missions and regional mediation efforts.

Further, in terms of diplomatic fairness anchored on international relations principles of rotational and negotiated agreements, it is Kenya’s time to serve given that is 22 years since Kenya served on the UNSC (last 1997-98), while Djibouti last served in 1994. 

Persuasively, diplomatic tradition should disallow representation of Africa at the UN Security Council by three countries that are Islamic and French-speaking. Given that currently, Niger and Tunisia are at the UNSC representing West Africa and North Africa, respectively.

However, Kenya faces internal, regional and international challenges in its UNSC bid. Internally the recent political developments can potentially injure some of Kenya’s 10-point pledge for Africa at the UNSC for instance the point on “Justice, human rights and democracy; promotion of a useful environment for a just society.” 

For instance, the public accusations of the President by the Chief Justice have created a perception of the executive clawing back on democracy, rule of law and constitutionalism. 

Notably is the perception that the executive is infringing on the principle of separation of powers between executive, judiciary and legislature. Internal issues such as publicized cases of police brutality and night arrest of human rights defenders also threaten Kenya’s international image. 

Regionally Kenya has had strained relations with both Tanzania and Uganda especially during this COVID19 pandemic. 

This is in addition to its border conflict with Somalia. Kenya is also perceived as transactional and ‘greedy’ in its diplomacy; it has been a candidate for several positions ranging from AU Commission chairmanship, hosting of African Continental Free Trade Area (ACFTA) to hosting UN Global Service Center. 

These portray Kenya as self-seeking, and it is made worse by case of Kenya’s bilateral trade agreements with USA despite AfCFTA ambitions.

Yet internationally, the conundrum of the two countries’ candidature to the UN Security Council lies in the fact that both states provide attractive opportunities to the global powers especially the UNSC permanent members. 

Both Kenya and Djibouti are strategically located on the Indian Ocean providing opportunities for global powers to establish trade, military bases and influence geo-politics. Indeed, both countries are allies to the global powers. 

Kenya provides an avenue for major powers to pursue trade interests and influence geo-politics in the Greater Horn of Africa region and the continent at large.    

Djibouti’s strategic location within the Red Sea Alliance region – a significantly emerging forum for Asia and Western powers- has attracted diplomatic relations with various states. 

Notably, Djibouti has become home to several military bases for powers such as USA, France, Japan, Italy and China. Perhaps this is a pointer to prediction from some quarters that Kenya and Djibouti could possibly share the seat.      

While Kenya appears to present a technocratic argument: climate change, gender equality, youth empowerment, bridging gap, human rights, peace and security. 

Djibouti presents political arguments that focus on Kenya’s conduct such as territorial conflicts with Somalia, unreliability as an international partner and violation of the spirit of sovereign equality of states and the practice of rotation of seats since Djibouti argues that it was the first to declare its candidacy in 2016.

If Kenya clinches the UNSC non-permanent member position, it is a chance of holding the rotational presidency, a position that opens extensive avenues for influence on matters that affect Kenya’s national interests and Africa. 

Kenya can get great power support and concessions whenever the five permanent members require backing of at least four non-permanent members to initiate veto Council decisions. 

The country could also leverage on its position in the UNSC to get a favorable outcome in its territorial conflict with Somalia currently before the International Court of Justice (ICJ)  

The COVID-19 pandemic has presented Kenya and Africa, with an overlap of health, economic, social, and political disruptions, which have in turn become the common product of global interactions. Consequently, this has placed a rapidly escalating demand for a new construct for foreign policy, which includes, regional and intra-African cooperation.

Forecasts indicate that health security has now become and will continue to feature as the primary driver in all diplomatic dialogues across the board, including within commercial diplomacy discourse.

Africa’s fight against the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, will have to sustain the participation of multi-sector and multi-lateral stakeholders, with the objective of actualizing measurable gains plus learning points, during what is now presumed to be a ‘health marathon’ towards the vaccine or other related interventions.

From a diplomacy context, it can be argued that health diplomacy has rapidly become a fundamental, cross-cutting diplomatic decision-making catalyst in Africa and the globe. The recent evidence of this is the announcement of the postponement in the commencement of the African Economic block, by the Secretary-General of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Mr. Wamkele Mene.

The secretary-general cited that this decision was influenced largely by a clear change in the momentary trajectory by the member states, from economic or trade development to National plus Continental Health Security. In addition to this, the second Intra-African Trade Fair (IATF2020) which was scheduled to take place from 1st to 7th September 2020 in Kigali, Rwanda, has also been postponed for one year, due to the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The trade and commerce spheres have presented the most quantifiable adverse implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. As governments interrogate the potential mechanisms to put in place in order to re-open the economies, stimulating international cross border trade will need to feature as a catalyst of the reopening strategies.

How then will health, safety and commerce interplay in order to help governments to sustain the slow, yet upward trajectory in trade and commerce? What are the emerging foreign policies that can be expected, as a result of the marriage between public health safety and commerce?

Once implemented, The AfCFTA is estimated to be the fertile ground to the world’s largest single market. The World Economic Forum (WEF) estimated that the Pan-African market will generate about 4 trillion dollars from investment and intra-African trade.

AfCFTA is being lauded as the African catalyst to leveraging competitiveness of industries and enterprises in member states, enlarging the opportunities for economies of scale improvements, plus enhancing the capabilities of national or continental resource allocations.

African commercial diplomacy practitioners are already poised to act as the negotiators alongside the Foreign Trade Policy attaches when the pan-African market is commenced, and they will place an active focus on the development of commercial cooperation between the business communities of the member states.

Their aim will be to embed sustainable commercial gains for their own countries, in the form of inward and outward trade and investment, through the means of intra-African business promotion as well as, improved commercial facilitation activities.

Africa’s trade has for a very long time been plagued by non- tariff barriers, soft periodic protectionism, as well as by the ‘hue and cry’ from the private investors, regarding the very slow elimination of these non-tariff barriers. COVID 19 pandemic has significantly added to the existing non-tariff barriers and is already spurring some form of protectionism from some of the member states.

An example of these is the added COVID 19 related health safety constraints to cross-border trade, being experienced by logistics companies in East Africa, with regards to the limitation of the movement of their Truck Drivers.

It is expected that, in the coming days, these and other emerging cross-border trade – COVID 19 related Health Safety regulations, are bound to be developed further into African Foreign Trade Policy instruments.

In anticipation of these, therefore, it is paramount for commercial diplomacy practitioners to collaborate with health diplomacy practitioners, so as to begin to develop a sustainable and proactive framework which will be able to assess, interrogate and prospect on the current impact of public health safety non-tariff barriers on commercial activities.

Additionally, it is anticipated that there will be a remodeling of new trade cooperation mechanisms between AfCFTA member states, in relation to the overall long-term influence of these public health safety non-tariff barriers on the African Trade Policy architecture. This will be an extremely crucial variable in the economic state craft of member states.

Global forecasts indicate overall business investor confidence has fallen sharply due to the overlapping adverse implications stemming from the COVID 19 Pandemic. Classical international business valuations will be predominately shaped by actual and perceived public health interventions within the country where the business is domiciled, combined by pandemic risk mitigation instruments hosted within each business.

It is inevitable, therefore, that in an effort to establish a semblance of long term investor security, international business investor negotiations will be more inclined to apportion pseudo-sanctions on business entities, based on the economic valuation of national public health policies set as governors of the private sector.

In view of this, it will be necessary for public health safety negotiators, to posture as arbitrators between investors and business owners, to preempt and resolve negotiation bottlenecks, as well as secure “win-win’s” for the proposed business alliances.

Movement of persons, pandemic resilient trade policy agreements, equitable appraisals of business potential, among others, will be retained as some of the continent’s Foreign Policy fundamentals.

As Africa continues to interrogate this evolution of foreign policy, the continent will need to expeditiously and adequately train health diplomacy practitioners, in an effort to build the continent’s capacity to understand, remodel and successfully negotiate the myriad of health safety-related foreign policy eventualities.

The continent will also have to design a leak-proof human resource pipeline, in order to retain the health diplomats who will not only have the academic competencies but will also have the added tacit knowledge of African nuances that are crucial bridging tools during African commercial negotiations and foreign policy considerations.

Kenya has an exemplary and enviable record at the multilateral context and at the regional level. It has established meaningful relations and partnerships with countries that are part of major intergovernmental negotiations including the P5 (Permanent Members of Security Council- China, France, Russia, United Kingdom and United States), the A3 (African Non-Permanent Security Council Members, currently Niger, South Africa and Tunisia), G77 & China, the African Group, Asia-Pacific States, Eastern European States, Western European and others States (WEOG), Latin American and Caribbean States, the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), the Pacific and Small Island Developing States (PSIDS) and the BRICS – (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Kenya aspires for a United Nations (UN) rooted at the centre of a rules based international system. A UN where all states exercise all rights due to them equally as enshrined in the Charter of the global body. Kenya will work with the entire UN membership in executing the mandate of the UNSC in an inclusive, responsive and consultative manner irrespective of size and military might. Since admission to the UN, Kenya’s commitment to the principles and ideals of the UN has been resolute and consistent, particularly on matters of peace and security, sustainable development, global environmental and climate change issues. Kenya believes strongly that sustainable development, which is humanity’s aspiration, can only be achieved when there is peace and security for all. Similarly, peace and security will be at risk in any situation where development is not inclusive, gender balanced and sustainable.

Located along the coast of the Indian Ocean, making it the Eastern gateway to Africa, Kenya has strong links with East Africa, the Horn of Africa, the Great Lakes region, Southern African regions of the continent and across the Indian ocean with India and other Asian countries. Owing to the fragility of her locale, Kenya has been relentless in the promotion and maintenance of peace, security and stability in Africa, and the world at large. Our anchor role in pursuit for peace particularly in the Horn of Africa has led to a strong and evolving peace-making doctrine within and beyond our borders.

Kenya is an open democratic country that is an expression of the spirit and the letter of the Kenya Constitution promulgated in 2010. Kenya’s free market economy continues to be the anchor and bedrock of Kenya’s economic development, stability and growth.

Kenya’s promise is to bring its wealth of experience in preventive diplomacy, peacekeeping, conflict resolution and post conflict reconstruction to the UNSC. This orientation frames our campaign for the UNSC seat: Peace and Security for Sustainable Development.

Kenya is the African Union endorsed Candidate for the non-permanent seat of the United Nations Security Council for the term 2021-2022. We seek your vote at the elections to be held on 17 June 2020.

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